Regardless of the traditional knowledge that Trump would certainly nominate a choose to safe a conservative majority that might finally overturn Roe v. Wade, getting that choose efficiently confirmed would diminish Trump’s reelection prospects (by energizing the Democratic base to vote for leaders who would pack the court docket or ratify PR and DC as states). However Trump doesn’t care a whit about abortion, a lot much less ideology. He solely cares about his energy and his reelection. His incentive, it appears to me, is to decide on a weak nominee who will certainly fail affirmation or a nominee whose affirmation might be deferred post-election. If the nomination is rejected, the Democrats might be seen as obstructionists and the Republican base might be energized. A deferred affirmation, in distinction, will act as a carrot that Trump can dangle in entrance of congressional Republicans, who will extra strongly marketing campaign for him. In both case, an unsuccessful affirmation will work in Trump’s favor, whereas a confirmed conservative will act in opposition to his reelection pursuits. Such a maneuver by the Trump marketing campaign can, after all, solely occur surreptitiously, as a result of it will anger each Democratic and Republican management to be manipulated this manner.
That’s from Shiran Pasternak in my electronic mail.