Over three years in the past, I made the next wager with my pal Ben Haller:
I due to this fact supplied Ben 2:1 odds towards Warren being elected, and he’s accepted. The wager will get known as off if Warren doesn’t run… The stakes are my $100 towards Ben’s $50.
Since Warren didn’t even get the vice-presidential nomination, Ben had simply conceded the wager.
This brings my cumulative public betting file to 21 wins, zero losses.
As I’ve conceded many instances prior to now, each wager comprises sign and noise. You possibly can win by way of superior perception, or by way of luck. A constant monitor file of wins, nonetheless, is virtually all sign. If an unbroken streak of 21 wins on an immense number of subjects doesn’t affirm the winner’s superior sagacity, what would?
That stated, none of my “superior sagacity” let me foresee the pandemic, the worldwide shutdown, or the baffling full restoration of the inventory market. So whereas not one of the outcomes of my bets enormously stunned me, the world nonetheless deeply confuses me. Not less than I can draw a bit of consolation from the outdated adage, “If you happen to’re not confused, you don’t perceive what’s occurring.”