Buddy or Foe? Explaining the Philippines’ China Coverage within the South China Sea

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The character of the Philippines’ international coverage in the direction of China within the South China Sea is puzzling. In the identical 12 months after being sworn into workplace because the President of the Republic of the Philippines on 30 June 2016, Duterte not solely sparked worldwide consideration together with his fervent rhetoric, but in addition confusion when he untangled his administration from the Aquino administration’s geopolitical agenda (de Castro, 2019). Departing from his predecessor’s extra confrontational coverage (de Castro, 2017),[1] he introduced the Philippines’ ‘army and financial separation’ from the USA on the Philippine-China Commerce and Funding Discussion board (Duterte in Beijing, 2016), and has considerably downplayed its diplomatic win on the Everlasting Courtroom of Arbitration by describing the 2016 arbitral ruling on Beijing’s claims within the South China Sea as a ‘piece of trash paper with 4 corners’ (Duterte to CCTV, 2016). But, tighter US-Philippine army relations, within the type of bilateral protection workouts, army help and intelligence sharing focused at bolstering maritime safety towards Chinese language threats (de Castro, 2017), have appeared to ‘contradict Duterte’s Beijing-friendly international coverage’ (Heydarian 2019). Contradictions are additionally obvious in different areas aside from tighter US-Philippine army relations. Whereas Overseas Secretary Cayetano and the army filed a diplomatic protest and criticism respectively towards the harassment of Philippine Navy personnel by a Chinese language chopper within the Second Thomas Shoal in June 2018, Duterte claimed to imagine no information of the incident in order to pander to the pursuits of the Chinese language (Elemia, 2018; Esmaquel II, 2018). China’s harassment of Filipino fishermen in Scarborough Shoal was equally attended to in a divisive method. Whereas the Philippine army unit liable for the Scarborough Shoal inspired native fisherman to ‘discover and maximise the maritime assets of their fast waters’ (Fonbuena, 2018), the identical incident was closely downplayed by Duterte and his spokesperson Harry Roque as a way to show the fruits of Sino-Philippine friendship (Ranada, 2018b). A collection of contradictory attitudes throughout the administration have since resulted in continually inconsistent insurance policies that are extremely puzzling.

The stress throughout the Philippines’ ‘unbiased’ international coverage in the direction of China thus kinds the premise for enquiry on this dissertation (Bautista, 2016; Baviera, 2016; de Castro, 2019). This dissertation is therefore occupied with uncovering the explanations for the Duterte administration’s twin observe international coverage within the South China Sea. By addressing this query at challenge, it seeks to shed on mild on the administration’s anti-China coverage behaviour regardless of its pivot to a extra China-friendly place. For readability, a pro-China angle might be encapsulated by Duterte’s pragmatic pivot to China the place maritime disputes are downplayed in favour of pursuing nearer financial and political ties with China. It is usually typically one which squares as much as new political realities within the South China Sea and seeks to mirror the brand new strategic established order in apply (Drysdale et al., 2017). Quite the opposite, an anti-China coverage would refer to behavior that doesn’t disregard maritime disputes to protect the budding Sino-Philippine friendship. Past fostering nearer relations with China, different means corresponding to reliance on the joint US-Philippine army alliance or devices of worldwide legislation would as an alternative be most popular to deal with the maritime disputes within the area (Drysdale et al., 2017).

The importance of this rigidity might be contextualised within the ongoing maritime dispute between China and the Philippines, the place there exist overlapping territorial claims on the premise of the previous’s arguably invalid nine-dash line and the latter’s archipelagic doctrine. Through the years, elevated Chinese language assertiveness within the type of offshore drilling, land reclamation and militarisation actions, and harassment of international fishing and oil exploration ships have violated Philippine sovereignty and intensified the Philippines’ need to keep up its rights over its territorial sea and unique financial zone (EEZ) (Chang, 2014). Furthermore, coupled with subpar Philippine army energy and lacklustre American dedication to the safety of the Asia-Pacific (Esguerra and Burgonio, 2014), the Philippines underneath Duterte has since tried to navigate the area with fastidious care to stop an armed battle or a recurrent episode like that of the 1994 Mischief Reef and 2012 Scarborough Shoal incidents (Chang, 2014).

Accounting for the Duterte administration’s two-track coverage due to this fact issues for 2 essential causes. First, it offers some clarification as to who dictates Philippine international coverage. That is particularly necessary since Duterte has been extensively assumed to take the helm with regards to international coverage resolution making (Esmaquel II, 2016; Gregorio, 2019; Reganit, 2020). This perception has been legally established on the premise of the Philippine Structure, which dictates that the president is the chief architect of Philippine international coverage (Govt Order No. 292, 1987; Senator Aquilino Pimental et al v Ermita, 2005). The growing personalization of Duterte as a populist chief and the comparisons of him with former dictator Ferdinand Marcos additional reinforce this view (Arugay, 2018; Prepare dinner, 2019b; R. Heydarian, 2019c). Albeit the variations within the extent to which they’ve, amongst others, ‘demobilised their conventional opponents through pressure’ (Abao, 2018; Mendiola, 2019), they share similarities of their authoritarian methods of governance (Peel, 2016; Abao, 2018). A more in-depth research of the strain throughout the Duterte administration’s international coverage can maybe make clear the diploma of affect wielded by the president vis-à-vis different cupboard members.

Second, accounting for tensions throughout the Duterte administration’s China coverage successfully fills a scholarship hole that has been left by present research of Philippine international coverage. As present scholarship on the Philippines has but to supply ample perception into divergent strands of coverage inside a single, not least Duterte’s, administration, explicating international coverage tensions inside a single administration thus serves as a singular contribution to present Philippine international coverage research. Present scholarship on Philippine international coverage throughout the Duterte administration might be largely labeled into two distinct teams. The primary group has, extra usually, offered explanations for adjustments in Philippine international coverage throughout successive presidential administrations. In the meantime, the second group has been characterised by debates relating to the kind of technique the Duterte administration has employed in coping with a rising China.

Increasing on present scholarship, students within the first group have explored causes for shifts in Philippine international coverage throughout the Aquino and Duterte administrations by means of varied ranges of research. In step with Waltz’s three ‘photos’ of worldwide relations, as outlined in his seminal work, ‘Man, the State and Warfare’ (1959), students on this group have accounted for adjustments in international coverage although the lens of the person, the state and the worldwide system. Adopting a systemic strategy, Chiang proposes that adjustments in Philippine international coverage might be attributed to the presence of uneven energy relations with the US and China (2017). However the importance of systemic shifts as a attainable clarification for coverage adjustments underneath the Duterte administration, Heydarian and Trinidad as an alternative posit home components as the first company and explanatory variable liable for these adjustments. Heydarian proposes that the evolution of Philippine international coverage stays a ‘operate of adjustments in each the home political calculations of the ruling elite factions’ in addition to adjustments within the steadiness of energy within the regional safety setting (2017, p.221). Trinidad echoes the opinion that home components have been crucial in strengthening the Philippines’ strategic partnership with Japan (2017). On this case, shifts in energy balances have been handy causes used to elucidate the trajectories of the Philippines’ evolving relationships. On the particular person stage, Tran has confused the significance of the president’s preferences in facilitating and hindering international coverage selections (2018). Equally, de Castro argues that international coverage shifts are an extension of various perceptions and ‘reference factors’ held by president Duterte and then-president Aquino (2019, p.21). Nevertheless, regardless of the importance of this analytical framework in highlighting the utility of the systemic, home and particular person as key views to elucidate totally different international coverage paths, its arguments haven’t been sufficiently developed to account for various paths inside a single presidential administration.

Then again, students within the second group have centered their evaluation fully on the Duterte administration and, by means of their evaluation, should some extent alluded to the international coverage tensions throughout the administration. These students, by means of invoking ideas with totally different meanings corresponding to hedging (Baviera, 2016; Ba, 2017), balancing (de Castro, 2016), lodging (Prepare dinner, 2019b), burden-sharing (Manantan, 2019), and bandwagoning (Murphy, 2017), have acknowledged each the Philippines’ reorientation in the direction of China and its enduring alliance with and reliance on the US. Nevertheless, their works have likewise but to sufficiently contemplate the underlying causes for the Philippines’ polycephalous international coverage.

This dissertation will due to this fact apply position concept as a theoretical framework to elucidate the Duterte administration’s twin observe international coverage in the direction of China within the South China Sea. As this paper hypothesizes that this rigidity in Philippine international coverage might be attributed to the contesting nationwide position conceptions held by totally different businesses within the Duterte administration, it proposes to analyse the position conceptions of the President, the Division of Overseas Affairs (DFA) and the Philippine defence institution as unbiased variables to focus on the presence of horizontal intra-role contestation between the president, bureaucratic and army institutions. This strategy eschews the idea that the Philippines behaves as a unitary actor with a consensus on its China coverage within the South China Sea and is thus capable of unpack international coverage behaviour inside its key decision-making brokers (Cantir and Kaarbo, 2016).

To exhibit how tensions throughout the Duterte administration might be attributed to horizontally contested nationwide position conceptions, this dissertation will first search to, by means of an evaluation of major and secondary supplies, assign nationwide position conceptions to Duterte and the Philippine bureaucratic and army institutions. It is going to subsequently join these roles to international coverage habits for example how these contested position conceptions have manifested into the ensuing tensions throughout the Duterte administration.

The central argument shall be developed over the subsequent 5 sections. The second part introduces position concept and horizontal position contestation as a theoretical framework. The third part lays out the methodology that this dissertation has adopted, whereas the subsequent two sections will apply the theoretical framework to empirical proof. The fourth part focuses on figuring out position conceptions of the president and bureaucratic and army institutions whereas the fifth part utilises a case research instance to exhibit how tensions throughout the Philippines’ China international coverage might be attributed to the differing position conceptions among the many decision-making political elites. The concluding part will mirror on the dissertation’s methodological and empirical strategy and establish areas for enchancment.

Function Principle as a Theoretical Framework

Overseas Coverage Evaluation (FPA)  theories have contributed considerably to our understanding of the assorted components that affect international coverage (Allison and Halperin, 1972; Hudson, 2007; Alden, 2017). FPA theories in Worldwide Relations have centered on investigating phenomena on the particular person, state and systemic stage, and have established the skills of people and teams to establish, decide and execute coverage (Ifantis et al., 2015, p.2).

Nevertheless, whereas students have used approaches corresponding to bureaucratic politics and realist and psychological theories to elucidate international coverage (Smith, 1984; Simon, 1991; Ye, 2007), position concept’s means to concentrate on each company and structural components renders it a horny and organisationally distinctive framework. That is not like conventional FPA approaches that may solely present explanations from a single stage of research (Thies, 2009, p.3). On high of decision-maker perceptions, position concept encapsulates the impression of fabric capabilities corresponding to nation dimension and financial efficiency in addition to ideational components like id, tradition and historical past (Breuning, 2011; Cantir and Kaarbo, 2016). Its means to transcend past a single stage of research therefore suggests its worth in bridging the hole between company and construction within the agent-structure divide (Breuning, 2011). By an evaluation of Danish and Dutch decision-making over its involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan respectively, position concept’s utility is additional mirrored by Kaarbo and Cantir, the place they argue that the usage of position concept to know international coverage can solely join brokers and constructions if it takes home brokers and inner political processes significantly (Kaarbo and Cantir, 2013).

Furthermore, position concept is enticing because it offers new perception into small-state international coverage making. As literature regarding small-state international coverage making has typically prioritised structural components over the perceptions of small states, viewing brokers of the state because the reference level for international coverage making therefore permits analyses to shake off the yoke of disparate relational components and energy projection talents as essential determinants of small-state international coverage making (Chong, 2010; Womack, 2016; Maass, 2017). Since structural components alone haven’t offered complete explanations of international coverage dynamics between small states and nice powers, position concept can maybe higher clarify small state behaviour from a special perspective, with extra precision. As such, this remaining part will introduce position concept as a attainable theoretical framework to elucidate the tensions inside Philippine international coverage. Whereas position concept’s early conception adopted structural approaches and conceived the state as an unitary actor, it has since delved into psychological approaches while recognising the presence of position contestation within the home political enviornment.

Early Function Principle: From Systemic to Symbolic Interactionism

Function concept isn’t endemic to Worldwide Relations. Originating from sociology, social psychology and anthropology, position concept has since been tailored by Worldwide Relations students to show that states, like people in society, carry out sure roles once they work together with different state and non-state actors (Holsti, 1970; Walker, 1987; Breuning, 2011; Cantir and Kaarbo, 2016). The systematic reconceptualization of position concept into FPA was pioneered by Holsti, whose seminal work on nationwide position conceptions offered a landmark research for subsequent generations of position concept literature. His work highlighted ‘position’ as a central idea, the place states are argued to play sure roles, as guided by expectations for acceptable behaviour, on the worldwide stage (1970, p.246). Much like people, a state’s conception and interpretation of its position can be closely influenced by materials and ideational components corresponding to its exterior setting, relative energy, id, perceptions and the worth and attitudes of its resolution makers (Holsti, 1970, p.243; Breuning, 2018). Aside from a singular position, Holsti’s research has additionally recognized the power for states to play twin and even a number of roles within the worldwide system, the place the roles tremendously prolong past the dichotomy of battle or cooperation (1970).

Although his observations on the a number of roles that states play didn’t drive early position concept analysis, his work nonetheless launched a number of ideas which have been central to the understanding and future growth of position concept. His definition of nationwide position conceptions is an apt start line. He defines nationwide position conceptions as:

The policymakers’ personal definitions of the overall varieties of selections, commitments, guidelines and actions, appropriate to their state, and of the features, if any, their state ought to carry out on a unbroken foundation within the worldwide system or in subordinate regional methods. (1970, p.246)

Constructing on his definition of nationwide position conceptions, he has additional recognized seventeen main roles expressed by states on the worldwide stage. These roles embody, however usually are not restricted to regional chief, lively unbiased, anti-imperialist agent, devoted ally and unbiased (Holsti, 1970, p.260-270).[2]

Although not with out criticisms, his definition of nationwide position conceptions and position typology has nonetheless accentuated the interactive dimensions of position concept, the place a state’s means to enact a ‘position’ is contextualised in relation to its interactions with one other state. Harnisch provides readability to this interactive dimension by defining state interactions by means of the self and the different, the place the self parallels the state’ position conceptions whereas the different displays the expectations that different states have with respect to the state’s international coverage behaviour (Breuning, 2011; 2011).  Harnisch additional makes use of this level to distinguish ‘roles’ from ‘id (2011). Since roles are enacted in relation to expectations of the different, states’ roles are conceived based mostly on identities and shouldn’t be used interchangeably regardless of being ‘carefully intertwined’ (Harnisch, 2011, p.9). Equally, Le Prestre identifies nationwide roles as a conception of nationwide id, the place roles carry extra particular prescriptions for actions regardless of each being ideational components which have bearings on state behaviour (1997, p.5). 

Although Holsti’s seminal work has facilitated the expansion of position concept literature, his findings have additionally confronted each methodological and analytical criticisms. Methodologically, work from earlier students centered on enhancing the unique position typology. As the prevailing position typology was formulated solely for the interval throughout the Chilly Warfare, Chafetz, Abramson and Grillot have proposed further position conceptions corresponding to ‘international system collaborator’ and ‘international chief’ to accommodate adjustments within the post-Chilly Warfare worldwide system (Chafetz et al., 1996). Equally, Want exposes the weaknesses of Holsti’s typology by offering an arguably extra systematic manner of characterising nationwide position conceptions (1980). Her typology proposes 13 totally different nationwide position conceptions which can be based mostly on states’ motivational orientation, standing perceptions and challenge or substantive downside space moderately than the extent of states’ worldwide involvement (Want, 1980).

Analytical criticisms have pushed the vast majority of position concept scholarship. Students have criticised its preoccupation with offering explanations for the impression of structural components on states’ nationwide position conceptions (Holsti, 1970; Walker, 1987). Whereas each structural position concept and symbolic interactionism recognise the importance of human businesses, they differ within the extent to which it kinds the centre of research (Breuning, 2018, p.2). In response to Stryker and Statham, the previous prioritises social constructions as the principle determinant in influencing state behaviour, the place people are subsequently socialised into present roles (1985). In the meantime, the latter justifies the power of people to outline each their roles and social constructions (1985).

The dominance of structural position theories over symbolic interactionism in position concept scholarship has resulted in arguably ‘un-sociological’ modes of analyses (Gaupp, 1983; Holsti, 1970). Symbolic interactionist approaches thus got here to the forefront of position concept literature throughout the post-Chilly Warfare interval the place there was a renewed curiosity in actor-specific concept in FPA and Worldwide Relations (Kaarbo, 2003; Hudson, 2005). Likewise, the expansion of rationality research in FPA have additionally supported the event of symbolic interactionist approaches in position concept scholarship (Breuning, 2018). Relegating the significance of structural components to a secondary place, the extent to which brokers can have an effect on constructions, and, subsequently, a state’s position conception, shaped the core of first era position concept evaluation.

Function Principle’s Second Technology: Past the Unitary Actor Analyses

Past a shift in focus from structural to symbolic interactionist modes of analyses, second era scholarship has developed to disaggregate the unitary actor assumption embedded in first era analyses. The transfer to eschew a unitary actor assumption from position concept originated from Holsti’s earlier statement that states may play a number of roles that have been incompatible with each other (1970). Though early students have disregarded this incompatibility and have assumed that states merely expressed ‘totally different orientations in the direction of totally different units of relationships’, second era scholarship has since constructed on Holsti’s earlier observations to conceptualise battle between a number of roles held inside a state (Holsti, 1970, p.303; Walker, 1979). Brummer and Thies outline the research of inter-state battle to symbolize ‘an actor occupying two or extra roles concurrently which have incompatible expectations’ (2015, p.279).[3] In rightly figuring out the shortage of home consensus over a state’s position conception, Cantir and Kaarbo’s work have regarded to ideas of horizontal and vertical position contestation to research the cohesiveness of position conceptions inside a collective entity as an empirical query as an alternative. Horizontal position contestation, which shall be utilized within the subsequent sections, explores position conceptions and contestation alongside the intra-elite nexus, whereas vertical position contestation explores the identical course of from an elite-masses perspective (Kaarbo and Cantir, 2012, 6). On this case, the idea of self has thus reworked to symbolize a variety of brokers, corresponding to particular person elites, bureaucratic businesses, political events and public opinion, with totally different position constellations which can be pushed by private and institutional motivations.  

Horizontal position contestation has henceforth been utilized by students to elucidate conflicting international coverage. Brummer and Thies have utilised horizontal position contestation to argue that the international coverage of post-war Germany was largely a results of nationwide position contestation between the federal government and opposition, as an alternative of bureaucratic and coalition politics (2015). Brummer and Thies have additionally analysed position contestation inside essential political events, between totally different branches of presidency, and between the federal government and political opposition to account for Australia’s international coverage between 1945 and 1952 (2016a). Likewise, Breuning has examined tensions between Belgium’s position as a buying and selling state and its position as a developmental associate to elucidate its lacklustre dedication to growth cooperation throughout the prime ministership of Jean-Luc Dehaene (2016). Past the West, students like Hirata have analysed horizontal position contestation in Asia, between the Liberal Democratic Social gathering and Democratic Social gathering of Japan, to make sense of the adjustments and continuities in Japanese safety coverage (2016). Although horizontal position contestation has hardly been used to elucidate intra-role battle amongst Southeast Asian states, Huang’s latest work inspecting Vietnam’s China coverage through vertical position contestation offers some headway into position concept’s applicability in Southeast Asia (2020).

As intra-role battle and subsequent incoherent coverage behaviour, like that of the Philippines within the South China Sea, might be defined utilizing horizontal position contestation; and that proof reflecting disagreements among the many Philippine political elites over international coverage making are comparatively accessible and clear, this dissertation due to this fact believes that this theoretical idea might be equally utilized to the Philippines to account for the tensions inside its international coverage in the direction of China. The subsequent part will clarify how tensions throughout the Philippine’s China international coverage might be demonstrated through horizontal position contestation as a theoretical framework.

Methodology

Utilising horizontal position contestation as a theoretical framework to elucidate the tensions throughout the Philippines’ China coverage within the South China Sea contains of two levels. The primary stage entails the identification of roles for chosen international coverage resolution makers, whereas the second stage offers an illustration of the theoretical argument by means of linkages between the established roles and precise international coverage. This part will additional develop on how these two levels shall be established.

Function Identification

To clarify horizontal position contestation amongst key Philippine international coverage resolution makers, it’s crucial to first establish the related international coverage brokers. This dissertation has recognized the President, the DFA and the Philippine protection institution, the place the Philippine Division of Nationwide Protection (DND) workouts govt supervision over the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), as key international coverage brokers. However scope constraints, this distinction takes into consideration the given political hierarchies however falls in need of assuming that ministries and the army are merely implementors of the President’s international coverage. This distinction additionally recognises that main institutional actors can impose their most popular roles in political processes (Wehner and Thies, 2014) and offers this dissertation with the capability to analyse different opinions within the occasion that international coverage implementation corresponds to Presidential recommendation.

These brokers are chosen for quite a lot of causes. Aside from the supply of information and feasibility of information assortment, all 4 brokers are sometimes concerned within the making and implementation of international coverage. The President is recognised because the ‘sole organ and authority in exterior relations and is the chief architect of international coverage’ (Govt Order No. 292, 1987; Senator Aquilino Pimental et al v Ermita, 2005). This de facto place has been upheld by the Supreme Courtroom in rulings in regards to the chief govt’s energy to find out international relations and coverage in relation to different state actors (Senator Aquilino Pimental et al v Ermita, 2005). The relevance of the DFA stems from its mandate to ‘protect and improve nationwide safety, promote and attain financial safety and shield the rights and promote the welfare and curiosity of Filipinos abroad’ (Republic Act No. 7157, 1991). In the meantime, the DND’s legitimacy lies in its protection towards ‘exterior and inner threats to territorial integrity and sovereignty, in order to create a safe and steady setting conducive to nationwide growth’ (Philippine Division of Nationwide Protection, 2019). Although the affect of the AFP has waned as it’s anticipated to stay insulated from partisan politics because the overthrowing of Ferdinand Marcos in 1986 (Baviera, 2012), its historic and enduring army relations with the US renders it an necessary international coverage actor on this context.

Whereas the dissertation doesn’t search to disclaim the importance of the Philippine legislative and judicial branches in constraining the choice making autonomy of the President and the manager physique, each businesses have been omitted as it might be argued the legislative and judicial branches have more and more little efficient resistance towards the manager physique (Santos, 2019). Regardless that the Philippine Congress, which consists of each the Senate and the Home of Representatives, is instantly concerned in international coverage, it has been largely dominated by supporters of Duterte after the mid-term elections in 2016 and 2019. In actual fact, PDP-Leban and Kilusang Pagbabago representatives have gained twenty seats out of the twenty-four-member Senate in addition to 271 out of 300-odd seats within the decrease home (Cabacungan, 2016).[4] Although the Congress has certainly been crucial of and concerned in making main international coverage selections, as exemplified by the Senate vote resulting in the closure of US army amenities in 1991, and the Senate ratification of the Philippines-US Visiting Forces Settlement in 1999, it arguably stays a ‘uncommon establishment to have proven efficient resistance towards the president’ (Santos, 2019). Duterte’s liberty in shaping the composition of the Supreme Courtroom has additionally consequently resulted within the lack of judicial independence, the place the judiciary has typically opted for restraint on vital instances –  the Duterte administration’s withdrawal from the Worldwide Felony Courtroom and its dealing with of the territorial and maritime disputes within the South China Sea are solely however a few examples (Ibarra, 2019).

The position of public opinion is omitted as a result of most people is arguably comparatively detached to worldwide developments aside from when ‘the pursuits of sure social teams are instantly concerned’ (Baviera, 2012, p.11). That is the case as most people is, as Baviera argues, typically not perceived to be lively or educated in international coverage issues (2012). Though there are certainly sure organised networks, non-governmental organisations and different related stakeholders which can be each vocal and educated about Philippine international coverage within the South China Sea, their impression on international coverage will maybe be considerably extra inconsequential when in comparison with different international coverage resolution makers such because the President, DFA, DND and AFP.

The identification of position conceptions for the chosen international coverage actors kinds the core of position concept. Nevertheless, as there isn’t any unified database on key phrases that might assist establish position typologies and nationwide position conceptions, roles can solely be recognized by means of induction based mostly on shut studying of supply materials (Cantir and Kaarbo, 2016). Usually, students have analysed oral sources, parliamentary debates and utilised machine-coded content material evaluation or resorted to interviews and surveys to establish position conceptions (Cantir and Kaarbo, 2016).

This dissertation, though methodologically restricted in its means to code or survey, like different approaches, seeks to establish nationwide position conceptions through induction and be specific concerning the content material examined and the way the roles are recognized. The timeframe of the supplies surveyed ranged from 2016, since Duterte’s presidency, to 2019 and have primarily been in English and infrequently blended with Tagalog and Bisaya. The supplies surveyed contains secondary analysis in addition to major sources corresponding to public statements, coverage paperwork, transcripts and speeches. To help the induction course of, Holsti’s authentic position typology shall be utilised as a reference to assign nationwide position conceptions. Within the occasion that references to specific roles usually are not fully according to its tutorial definitions, position conceptions can nonetheless be obtained by means of the interpretation of implied roles (Brummer and Cameron G., 2016, p.44).

Greater than 40 sources have been retrieved from on-line archives of the Presidential Communications Operations Workplace  (PCOO), Radio Tv Malacañang (RTVM) and the Official Gazette. The sources examined embody speech transcripts from Duterte’s Inaugural Deal with, State of the Nation Deal with (SONA) from 2016 to 2019, official statements following his official visits to Vietnam and Russia and media interviews held throughout varied formal and casual occasions. The sources have been chosen for his or her relevance to international coverage, the South China Sea or inter-state relations with China or the US. Different supplies reviewed embody the Philippines’ Nationwide Safety Coverage (2017-2022) doc and the Philippine Structure.

An analogous strategy is adopted to find out the position conceptions of the DFA, DND and AFP regardless of publicly obtainable data being usually much less accessible. Though this dissertation is cognisant of the attainable competing position conceptions inside single bureaucracies, given feasibility concerns, position conceptions will as an alternative be inferred based mostly on representatives of every company. The representatives embody the Secretary of Nationwide Protection, the Secretary of Overseas Affairs and army leaders from the Philippine Military, Navy and Air Pressure, wherever relevant. The supplies surveyed embody official information articles, press releases and paperwork retrieved from authorities company web sites. Remarks and quotes from interviews have been additionally retrieved from information sources such because the Philippine Information Company (PNA).

Hyperlink to Overseas Coverage

Function conceptions of the recognized brokers shall be mapped to precise coverage behaviour to elucidate the tensions throughout the Philippine’s China coverage within the South China Sea. Although students have achieved this by means of using statistics, course of tracing and case research strategies have largely dominated this space of analysis. Inside case research, the precept of causality is utilized to look at the causal mechanisms by means of which horizontal position contestation has affected coverage behaviour. This stage ought to reveal the tensions which might have been troublesome to look at with out disaggregating the unitary state construction.

The 2019 Reed Financial institution Incident is used as a case research to focus on the contrasting actions taken by Duterte, the DFA, DND and the AFP. Aside from common observations suggesting position contestation, this episode, which focuses on Philippine fishing rights within the area, represents the most recent and arguably probably the most critical incident that has affected Chinese language-Philippines rapprochement underneath the Duterte administration. This might thus be a possible avenue the place position contestation would happen.

Roles within the Duterte Administration

This part identifies the position conceptions of the recognized international coverage actors based mostly on Holsti’s traditional typology of nationwide position conceptions (1970, p. 260). 4 competing position conceptions might be recognized over the course of the timeframe examined: lively unbiased, anti-imperialist agent, unbiased and devoted ally.

Energetic Impartial and Anti-Imperialist Agent: Duterte

In response to Holsti, the lively unbiased position goes past the mere pursuit of an ‘unbiased’ international coverage (1970, p. 262). As an alternative, it emphasizes ‘without delay independence, self-determination, attainable mediation features, and lively packages to increase diplomatic and business relations to various areas of the world’ (Holsti, 1970, p.262). Within the Philippines, Duterte’s objective was to ascertain the nation as an unbiased regional and worldwide actor that has the power to make selections based mostly on its nationwide pursuits moderately than act based mostly on the pursuits of different states (Duterte, 2017; 2018; 2019). Given the rise of China, this could additionally imply independence from United States international coverage and the pliability to reinforce diplomatic and financial relations with China. Furthermore, the ‘lively’ element of the position entails the enlargement of relations with different states inside and past Southeast Asia. The lively unbiased position is essentially supported by President Duterte.  

This position is clearly mirrored in state paperwork in addition to in Duterte’s SONAs from 2017 and 2018. In his 2017 SONA, Duterte expressed that the Philippines has:

Launched into varied initiatives to advance [its] nationwide curiosity within the international group. [It] pursue[s] good relations with all nations anchored on an unbiased — on an unbiased international coverage — and the essential tenets of sovereign equality, mutual respect and non-interference. As an unbiased nation, [it] will uphold and promote [its] nationwide pursuits within the worldwide group. [It] will strengthen and search partnership with those that share [its] values. (2017)

In the identical speech, he has additionally expressed his curiosity to domesticate ‘hotter relations with China by means of bilateral dialogues and different mechanisms, resulting in the easing of tensions between the 2 international locations and [an] improved negotiating setting on the West Philippine Sea’ (2017). His 2018 SONA equally displays his need to pursue an lively and unbiased international coverage:

On worldwide relations, we will proceed to claim and pursue an unbiased international coverage. Our long-term nationwide growth and nationwide safety objectives come first. We will proceed to achieve out to all nations no matter their prevailing political persuasions or proximity to or distance from our shores as long as these nations want us properly. (2018)

Whereas this sentiment has not been mirrored to the same extent in his 2019 SONA, official statements following his official visits to India and the Russian Federation in October 2019 have been pretty according to speeches from earlier years:

Simply as India is deepening its presence in our area by means of the ‘Act East Coverage’, the Philippines can be increasing the boundaries of its diplomacy in pursuit of a really unbiased international coverage, as mandated by our Structure. We’re diversifying partnerships – rebalancing previous ones and strengthening people who have historically been on the margins of our diplomacy. (2019b)

This go to generated larger momentum for Philippine-Russia relations. [This] is a key factor of our thrust to rebalance Philippine international coverage in the direction of independence, steadiness, and diplomatic agility. The beneficial properties we have now made on this go to convey us a step nearer to our goal of a steady, comfy, and safe life for all Filipinos. That’s my imaginative and prescient for and bounden responsibility to the nation and I’ll do the whole lot to attain that. (2019a)

The Nationwide Safety Coverage (NSP) 2017-2022, which incorporates the assertion of rules that establishes the strategic coverage objectives and targets of the Duterte administration, has additionally emphasised the significance of an unbiased international coverage anchored on worldwide legislation in order to attain nationwide safety within the context of an expansive international group (NSP, 2017). The Nationwide Safety Technique (NSS) 2018 additional enhances the NSP 2017-2022, the place Duterte has expressed his need to bolster the Philippines’ place ‘in the neighborhood of countries by strengthening diplomatic relations with [its] conventional allies, participating non-traditional companions and pursuing an unbiased international coverage that offers primacy to [its] nationwide curiosity’ (NSS, 2018). Additional proof highlighting Duterte’s lively unbiased position can be evident by means of his assertion after his 2016 go to to Vietnam, his speech throughout his 2016 assembly with the Filipino group and his media interview following the oath taking ceremony of newly appointed authorities officers in 2019 (2016a, 2016b, 2019c).

It’s clear that past the emphasis of a rebalancing in the direction of an unbiased international coverage, Duterte’s lively unbiased position is showcased through his need to develop and improve the Philippines’ engagements with different international locations. Beneath Duterte, the Philippines has expanded its political and financial relations with notably China, Russia and Japan, the place the Philippine-Japan strategic partnership has reached its ‘golden age’ lately (Trinidad, 2017; Heydarian, 2019). The lively option to broaden its non-traditional engagements with different states offers Duterte with extra flexibility when participating with its conventional American ally and due to this fact permits Duterte to undertake insurance policies which he believes are top for the Philippines on the worldwide stage.

Concomitant with the lively unbiased position, Duterte additionally, to some extent, exemplifies that of an anti-imperialist agent. Holsti describes an anti-imperialist agent as one who perceives imperialism as a critical risk (1970, 264).  Although his work largely referred to communist states viewing themselves as brokers of wrestle towards American imperialism throughout the Chilly Warfare, his evaluation doesn’t restrict itself to communist states or the Chilly Warfare (1970, 264). Within the case of Duterte, though the Philippines now not stays an American colony since 1946, he arguably stays uncomfortable with the vestiges of American colonialism.

This position was maybe most strongly expressed within the earlier years of Duterte’s presidential time period. Whereas directed extra to home coverage than international coverage, his 2016 SONA alluded to his anti-imperialist sentiments with regard to the exploitation of Mindanao:

[I]t’s an imperialism factor. There’s a historic injustice dedicated towards the Moro individuals. We now have to appropriate it. However it’s properly attainable now . . . . Iyong nakuha ng mga Amerikano [you get American], Español [Spanish], pati yung mga Pilipino [as well as Filipino], mga kapitalista [capitalists], those that exploited Mindanao with that factor sloganeering go to Mindanao as a result of it’s a land of promise. (2016a)

His anti-imperialist sentiment can be evident in his 2017 SONA, the place he made reference to the American seizure of the Balangiga Church bells. He emphasised that the bells represented Philippine nationwide heritage and the heroism of those that resisted the American colonisers and demanded for the bells to be rightfully returned to the Filipinos (2017). His speech commemorating Nationwide Heroes’ Day in 2016 can be testomony to his discomfort with the revival of the Philippines’ imperial previous:

I don’t say “Malacañan,” I simply say, “The Folks’s Palace.” Typically, they name it “Malacañan.” The phrase “Malacañan” is among the vestiges of imperialism. I’m not comfy with it, truly and they need to perceive once I say I don’t ever point out “Malacañan,” I simply say it’s the “Folks’s Palace.” It’s the Folks’s Palace, truly. (2016b)

Stronger references to US imperialism might be present in examples corresponding to his Departure Speech at Davao Worldwide Airport in 2016, the place he criticises Filipino columnists for his or her loyalty to the US and emphasises his accountability to the Filipino individuals:

You already know, the Philippines isn’t a vassal state. We now have lengthy ceased to be a colony of the USA. . . . , [the columnists] look upon Obama and the USA as if we’re the lap canine of this nation. I don’t reply to anyone however to the individuals of the Republic of the Philippines. . . . . I’m not beholden to anyone. . . . I’m a President of a sovereign state, and we have now lengthy ceased to be a colony. I should not have any grasp, besides the Filipino individuals, no person however no person. (2016a)

Analysing Duterte’s keynote speeches would due to this fact reveal his need to dissociate the Philippines from its colonial previous in order that it may act independently to pursue its greatest pursuits. Nevertheless, whereas Duterte has instigated threats and anti-US rhetoric (which he has typically dismissed as ‘jokes’) alongside assist for adjustments to Philippine international coverage (Ranada, 2018a), it might be inaccurate to assert that Duterte is towards the US or the West. You will need to be aware that whereas he stays inconsistent together with his hyperbole and exaggeration, he has nonetheless acknowledged the Philippines’ deep ties with the US and clarified his assist for American liberalism because the ‘greatest pathway to a simply and truthful society’ (2019c).

Devoted Allies: Philippine Armed Forces

The devoted ally position conception entails the coming into of alliance commitments whereby a extra highly effective state ‘makes a particular dedication to assist the insurance policies’ and supply exterior safety ensures to a much less highly effective state (Holsti 1970, p.267). Aside from the formation of alliance relationships, Holsti additionally stresses the significance of reciprocity, which requires the much less highly effective state to be supportive of the guarantor state (1970, p.267). Within the Philippines, the AFP would more than likely play the position of an devoted ally. A pointy distinction between position conceptions held by Duterte and the AFP can be notable at this stage. Whereas Duterte has been pretty crucial and sought to detach itself from its safety ally, the US-Philippines alliance was typically positively emphasised by AFP representatives.

The resilience of the US-Philippine alliance, till 2019, was characterised by the 1951 Mutual Protection Treaty (MDT), the 1998 Visiting Forces Settlement (VFA) and the 2014 Enhanced Protection Cooperation Settlement (EDCA). The core of the alliance is Article V of the MDT, which dictates that each nations would assist one another if both the Philippines or the US are attacked by an exterior get together (MDT, 1951). The preparations have arguably led to a ‘substantial diploma of tactical synchronisation and interoperability’ between the AFP and its American counterparts, which has lengthy been embedded within the Philippine protection structure (Tran, 2018). This relationship was even confirmed by Duterte himself, who throughout a media interview in Cagayan de Oro Metropolis, admitted ‘pro-American talaga ang mga sundalo natin [our soldiers are pro-American], that I can’t deny’ (Ranada, 2017). As such, the Americanised AFP stays near its conventional safety ally regardless of changes to the army alliance and up to date makes an attempt to reinforce its relations with different non-traditional allies.

Although analysis findings appear to recommend that the AFP doesn’t typically overtly categorical its opinions of the US, AFP representatives have managed to, by means of interviews, categorical their choice for the army alliance. US-Philippine army dynamics have been revealed by Vice Admiral Alexander Lopez, who acknowledged US help and its position in ‘being a giant brother’ in mild of the Philippines’ ‘much less succesful armed forces within the area’ (Orendain, 2016). Lieutenant-Normal Edgar R. Fallorina additionally expressed his perception that the US ‘will at all times be on the service of [it’s] aspiration to construct a vibrant, peaceable and progressive Filipino nation’ throughout the C-130T plane acceptance ceremony at Colonel Jesus Villamor Air Base (Philippine Air Pressure, 2018).

Brigadier-Normal Restituto Padilla’s assertion after Duterte’s name for the withdrawal of US particular forces in South Philippines is one other instance of how such views are sometimes illuminated after a President-initiated alternation to bilateral army relations. He expressed that ‘the latest pronouncement will have an effect on solely a token variety of American servicemen who’re confined primarily in Zamboanga Metropolis . . . [and] guarantee[d] our individuals and allies that US-Philippine defence relations stay rock strong’ (The Straits Instances, 2016). Former AFP Chief Eduardo Oban Jr. has equally conveyed his choice for US-Philippine army exchanges following Duterte’s resolution to terminate Balikatan 2017:

Maybe the President might rethink to permit the holding of non-traditional workouts like humanitarian help and catastrophe response, counter-terrorism, and different transnational crimes like drug trafficking . . . , it is very important proceed with these workouts even when warfare video games corresponding to joint patrols and dwell fireplace workouts are discontinued . . . . Creating the identical interoperability with a brand new ally will take time. (Fonbuena, 2016)

Commentaries on joint workouts additional reveals their shared spirit of unity and the AFP’s assist for the US in its diplomatic and army targets. Brigadier-Normal Edgard Arevalo noticed the Balikatan workouts as a becoming tribute to ‘Filipino and American soldier-patriots as they fought side-by-side, shoulder-to-shoulder, towards seemingly insurmountable odds’ in World Warfare II (Nepomuceno, 2019b). He has additional acknowledged that the ‘friendship and combat continues alongside each other’ even within the face of latest challenges (2019). AFP Chief-of-Employees Normal Benjamin Madrigal Jr. likewise highlights the camaraderie fostered by the ‘enduring protection partnership’, the place ‘troops practice[ing] collectively and hurdl[ing] developed eventualities’ have ‘relieve[d] the occasions when Filipinos and American troopers fought aspect by aspect in protection of peace, freedom and democracy’ (Nepomuceno, 2019c). He has additionally confused his need for each militaries to ‘shoulder the load collectively’ to amplify the alliance and improve its interoperability with a purpose to fight safety threats (Nepomuceno, 2019a). Arevalo and Madrigal’s views have been additionally according to that of AFP Chief-of-Employees Normal Carlito Galvez (Nepomuceno, 2018d, 2018e), Lieutenant-Normal Emanuel Salamat (Nepomuceno, 2018a), and Vice-Commander Main-Normal Reynaldo M. Aquino (Philippine Military, 2019) who deem the US-Philippine partnership as an distinctive alternative for each events.

Independents: Division of Nationwide Protection and Overseas Affairs

An unbiased position conception is deduced by means of statements affirming dedication to creating coverage selections in line with the state’s personal pursuits moderately than for the targets of different states (Holsti 1970, p.268). In contrast to the lively unbiased position that requires actors to actively develop relations with different states, independents typically stress the factor of self-determination (Holsti, 1970, p.268). The DND and the DFA arguably embody the unbiased position conception. The DND and DFA’s roles are largely deduced from the views of Nationwide Protection Secretary and the Secretary of Overseas Affairs respectively.[5] Although each departments have particular person bureaucratic pursuits, each are comparable in that that, not like Duterte, they respect time-honoured protocols and are extra deliberate and measured of their insurance policies (Gloria, 2017).

Analysing sources from the DND and DFA suggests, to an extent, some alignment with Duterte’s unbiased international coverage (Lorenzana, 2016; Nepomuceno, 2018c). The DND’s need to keep up an unbiased international coverage is exemplified by Lorenzana’s crucial evaluate of the MDT, the place he recommended to both ‘preserve [the MDT], strengthen it, or scrap it’ (Amador, 2019; Prepare dinner, 2019a). His remark throughout a press briefing at Malacañang Palace additional encapsulates his need to eschew US-led battle within the South China Sea:

It’s being concerned in a warfare that we don’t search and don’t need. The Philippines isn’t in a battle with anybody and won’t be at warfare with anybody sooner or later. However the USA, with the elevated and frequent passage of its naval vessels within the West Philippine Sea, is extra more likely to be concerned in a capturing warfare. In such a case and on the premise of the MDT, the Philippines shall be routinely concerned. (Santos, 2018)

Equally, The DFA’s dedication to an unbiased international coverage has been emphasised by international affairs secretaries all through the years. Locsin reinterprets Philippine international coverage as being ‘associates to associates, enemy to enemies, and a worse enemy to false associates’ (2019), and is one which entails ‘getting off your knees, in your ft to face up for [one’s] nation’ moderately than ‘swap the grasp [it is] kneeling earlier than’ (2018). Locsin’s unbiased strategy may also be deduced from his welcome remarks on the International Convention of Heads of Posts:

All our presidents have needed an unbiased international coverage; some waited for what couldn’t occur given the consultant democracy we adopted at our start and in successive rebirths. . . it stays a relentless of Philippine politics that the overwhelming majority of its individuals throughout all generations are intensely pro-American. . . . Our nationwide curiosity can by no means be the identical curiosity as that of a international energy. And I’ve at all times been cautious of pursuing initiatives for mutual profit between weak international locations and massive powers. The phrases of endearment could appear truthful however the nature of the connection is in the end one-sided and detrimental to the weaker get together. Allow them to get shut sufficient to caress you and so they’re too shut for consolation as a result of they will as simply strangle you. (2019a)

Nevertheless, proof does reveal the DND and DFA’s reasonable place on Philippine international coverage. Whereas the DND recognises that its most advantageous course was to ‘at all times be ready to behave alone’ regardless of the upkeep of shared pursuits with the US towards frequent threats (Lorenzana, 2016; Nepomuceno, 2018c), it nonetheless recognises the worth of the longstanding relations between each international locations (Gutierrez, 2017; Nepomuceno, 2018f, 2019d). In actual fact, Lorenzana has acknowledged that each international locations will ‘proceed to face collectively as associates, as companions and as allies’ within the face of ‘many adversities by means of the years of [their] lengthy, shut friendship and safety alliance (Nepomuceno, 2018b; U.S. Embassy within the Philippines, 2019).

The DFA has additionally positioned emphasis on the US-Philippine friendship in the same measure (2017, 2019, 2019). Locsin has described the Philippines because the US’s ‘true buddy in difficult occasions’ and expressed that each international locations share ‘one true friendship’ and are seen ‘as photos of each other’ as each ‘like freedom and hate subservience to different international locations’ (2019; Vibar, 2019). Cayetano has additional justified Philippine independence as a transfer that might prop the Philippines up as a powerful ally in order that it may finally be ‘of extra use to the [US] and the American individuals’ (2017). He has additionally in contrast US-Philippine relations to a parent-child relationship, suggesting that its present ‘love’ and ‘respect’ for the US shouldn’t be seen as mutually unique, regardless of its pursuit of its personal pursuits (2017). Because the DND and DFA have adopted extra measured approaches, each businesses may due to this fact be argued to embody unbiased position conceptions.

These totally different roles therefore point out some distinction between that of the President, the AFP, DND and DFA. Duterte’s interpretation of ‘lively independence’ and ‘anti-imperialism’, which underscores a defiance towards the US and its imperialist baggage, appears to venture a pro-China slant, moderately than a impartial and principled stance. Then again, the AFP seems to be probably the most anti-China, whereas the ‘independence’ of the DND and DFA presents a extra nuanced, reconciliatory and impartial center floor. These position conceptions will subsequently be studied within the context of the 2019 Reed Financial institution Incident to exhibit that horizontal position contestation can account for the tensions throughout the Philippine’s China coverage within the South China Sea.

Tensions in Overseas Coverage: 2019 Reed Financial institution Incident

This part offers an illustration of the theoretical argument by mapping the recognized position conceptions to Philippine responses throughout the 2019 Reed Financial institution incident. Though the incident was closely downplayed by Duterte and finally didn’t escalate right into a army confrontation or set off the US-Philippine safety alliance, horizontal position contestation was arguably current within the debate main as much as its decision.

The Reed Financial institution incident occurred from 9 to 22 June on account of a collision between an anchored Filipino fishing boat, the F/B Gem-Ver, and a suspected Chinese language militia vessel, the Yuemaobinyu 42212. The accident befell in Reed Financial institution throughout the Philippines’ EEZ and China’s contested nine-dash line within the South China Sea. The Philippine vessel that sank left its 22 crew members deserted and subsequently rescued by a Vietnamese fishing vessel. Within the dealing with of the disaster, tensions throughout the Duterte administration surfaced throughout two essential areas, the place events concerned have been unable to achieve a consensus on, firstly, the character of the incident and, secondly, the Philippines’ place on the joint investigation proposed by China.

The character of the incident was disputed by the Duterte, the DFA and the Philippine protection institution. Whereas the latter two noticed the incident as a deliberate act, Duterte sought to trivialise the allision. Shortly after the incident occurred, Duterte instantly laid low to keep away from a diplomatic spat with Beijing (Heydarian, 2019a). Like China, who assured that it was counterproductive to make political interpretations out of the ‘unintended collision’ which might have an effect on the China-Philippines friendship (Chinese language Embassy Manila, 2019), he likened the ‘little maritime accident’ to a highway crash that shouldn’t be interpreted as ‘a confrontation of armed males and machine or ships’ (Heydarian, 2019a). He additional denounced the incident’s impression on Philippine sovereignty and China-Philippine bilateral relations, continued to permit the Chinese language to fish within the Philippines’ EEZ and insisted that the Philippine Navy not begin a warfare with China over the incident (2019b; Heydarian, 2019a).

Then again, Lorenzana was the primary to denounce the Yuemaobinyu 42212 for ‘abandoning the 22 Filipino crewmen to the mercy of the weather’ (Maitem, 2019). Locsin took his cue from Lorenzana and filed a diplomatic protest over the incident to research if the collision was a mere allision or a case of ramming (Esmaquel II, 2019), and criticised China for its lack of ‘ethical and probably authorized’ imperatives and violation of Article 33 of the UNCLOS (Rocamora, 2019a). Philippine Navy Chief Robert Empedrad equally insisted that ‘the ship was rammed’ and disputed the incident as a ‘regular maritime incident’ on condition that the F/B Gem-Ver was stationary when the collision occurred (Maitem, 2019). Locsin has additionally refuted Malacañang’s assertion that recommended an acceptance of China’s apology, arguing that presidential spokesperson Panelo merely ‘expressed satisfaction with the Chinese language apology and the provide of compensation and nothing extra’ (Pazzibugan, 2019).  

The Philippines’ place on China’s joint investigation proposition reveals comparable dynamics between Duterte and his administration. Whereas Duterte was constant his in assist for China and as such welcomed China’s provide to conduct a joint investigation that might satisfactorily conclude the episode (Mendez, 2019; Gonzalez, 2019), Locsin insisted on separate investigations on the premise {that a} joint investigation would intrude into the sovereignty of each international locations (2019d). Regardless that the investigation by the Philippine Coast Guard and Maritime Trade Authority have violated the UNCLOS and the SOLAS throughout the Philippines’ EEZ (Rocamora, 2019a), Duterte has but to reply in an goal method that might doubtlessly drawback Sino-Philippine relations.

Completely different nationwide position conceptions held by Duterte and his administration can be utilized to elucidate the contradicting coverage selections within the Reed Financial institution. Duterte’s lively unbiased position conception performed out clearly from his sustained pursuit of a supposedly biased ‘unbiased international coverage’ that steered the Philippines away from the American orbit. He has additionally remained pretty silent whereas standing in favour of China with a purpose to protect the budding China-Philippine friendship, as he believes this might assist deescalate state of affairs within the South China Sea. To a lesser extent, Duterte’s anti-imperialist position was not directly demonstrated by his unpopular resolution to eschew the invocation of the MDT – a transfer which was extensively supported by oppositionists, unbiased senators and even his allies who favoured a harder Philippine place within the contested waters (Heydarian, 2019a).

In distinction, the DFA and DND have been robust advocates of an unbiased strategy that upheld the Philippines’ pursuits. Each businesses justified their positions by means of a powerful, impartial and principled stance based mostly on rules of worldwide maritime legislation. Aside from contesting Chinese language fishing rights within the Philippine EEZ, Locsin and Lorenzana condemned China on its failure to render help to distressed mariners and to guard life at sea (Rocamora, 2019b). The unbiased position conception is additional accentuated by Locsin’s resolution to conduct investigations independently, through investigations by the joint Philippine Coast Guard-Maritime Trade and the Maritime Security Committee (2019). Each departments have additionally restrained from supporting US army intervention regardless of US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo and US Ambassador to the Philippines, Kim Sung, overtly floating the MDT as a viable resolution (Ramos, 2019).

Regardless that the AFP’s devoted ally position was not obvious throughout the debate, its position is probably closely featured after the incident befell. Because the collision bolstered the specter of Chinese language militarisation and offered the Philippines with proof of China’s expansionism in contested waters, the disaster, to some extent, heightened the AFP’s push for nearer cooperation with the US towards China (Heydarian, 2019d). That is evident from Lieutenant-Normal Macairog Alberto and the US Military Pacific Command’s resolution to develop Train Salaknib in preparation for ‘greater joint workouts with the presence of extra American troops’ to deal with large-scale conflicts underneath the provisions of the MDT (Mangosing, 2019). The defence institution has additionally welcomed Washington’s rising strategic readability within the area. Aside from extra readability surrounding the US’s alliance commitments in ‘the Pacific’, revised MDT pointers have additionally improve the alliance’s means to reply to ‘gray zone’ aggression from Chinese language militia forces (Lorenzana, 2019), thus enabling each international locations to introduce new operational pointers that may particularly goal rising threats within the South China Sea.

The Reed Financial institution incident has due to this fact demonstrated the impression of horizontal position contestation on the Philippines’ China coverage within the South China Sea. In coping with the character of the incident and the Philippines’ place on China’s joint investigation proposal, the differing roles held by Duterte and his administration have resulted in contradictory pro-China and anti-China insurance policies that can not be defined through a single position conception. Given the contrasting roles throughout the administration, the Philippines’ eventual adoption of an anti or pro-China coverage in response to developments within the South China Sea would maybe then relaxation on the power of the administration to mood Duterte’s pro-China tendencies. Within the occasion the place a number of roles dominate, horizontal position contestation throughout the Duterte administration may thus probably present some clarification for the constant inconsistencies in the direction of China within the South China Sea.

Conclusion

In utilizing horizontal position contestation as a theoretical framework, this dissertation has tried to make use of position concept to account for the Duterte Administration’s polycephalous professional and anti-China international insurance policies within the South China Sea. Utilizing the 2019 Reed Financial institution incident as a case research for example the theoretical argument, contrasting roles held by Duterte, the DFA and the Philippine protection institution have alluded to inconsistencies throughout the administration, which this dissertation argues to be a microcosm of Philippine international coverage in the direction of China within the South China Sea.

By an evaluation of the position conceptions held by Duterte, the DFA, DND and AFP, the Philippines’ pro-China attitudes may largely be attributed to Duterte’s ‘lively independence’ from the long-standing US-Philippine bilateral relations. Although related, ‘anti-imperialism’ performed an ancillary position that sought to strengthen Duterte’s anti-US and conversely, pro-China attitudes. In the meantime, the ‘unbiased’ roles of the DFA and DND have highlighted that sentiments in the direction of China and the US are non-binary. Extra importantly, the ‘independence’ of each departments is vital within the recalibration of Philippine international coverage based mostly on their perceived nationwide pursuits and is as such, probably liable for suppressing unwarranted anti-US or pro-China sentiments throughout coverage formulation. Within the space of army cooperation, the loyalty of the AFP in the direction of the US may maybe account for the strong and ever-deepening ties regardless of adjustments to their phrases of collaboration.

Whereas some perception might be gained from the appliance of position concept and horizontal position contestation, this dissertation is clearly conscious of its methodological and analytical shortcomings. Methodologically, its incapacity to conduct correct content material evaluation has restricted its means to precisely infer position conceptions of Duterte and his administration. Whereas it has sought to compensate for this by increasing its knowledge assortment course of, the standard of outcomes could be compromised nonetheless. Furthermore, the shortcoming to find out position conceptions by means of code has additionally resulted in heavy reliance on Holsti’s authentic position typology, which regardless of being a great start line, has been subjected to refinements and criticisms over the course of position concept scholarship. Given analysis constraints, the shortage of concentrate on the Philippine legislative and judicial branches in addition to public opinion would additionally recommend that extra subtle analyses might be achieved if each horizontal and vertical position contestation frameworks are utilized extra rigourously.

Analysis constraints have additionally resulted in analytical inadequacies. By conveniently assuming homogeneity throughout departments and inside departments, the dissertation has ignored the nuances of the DFA, DND and AFP. As there have been a number of international affairs secretaries and army leaders, every with their very own distinct pursuits, from 2016 to 2019, a deeper evaluation of every particular person is required with a purpose to generate extra exact position conceptions. Furthermore, since protection and international affairs representatives might have had former hyperlinks to army, the impact of twin position conceptions by a person on a division’s position stays unexplored.  

Though this dissertation is actually not the primary to utilise Worldwide Relations ideas to elucidate the Duterte administration’s China coverage within the South China Sea, it in the end seeks to contribute to the topic by deconstructing the Philippines from inside. Given the Philippines’ latest resolution to terminate the VFA in February 2020, extra positively must be accomplished with a purpose to higher decide if the Philippines is certainly a buddy or foe to China.

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Notes

[1]  The Aquino administration is commonly interpreted by students as one which actively seeks to problem China’s expansionism within the South China Sea. Examples generally cited embody the tightening of US-Philippine army relations through the signing of the 2014 Enhanced Protection Cooperation Settlement, and its prosecution of China within the Everlasting Courtroom of Arbitration in 2016.

[2] Holsti’s full 17-role typology: Regional-subsystem collaborator, unbiased, liberator-supporter, devoted ally, mediator-integrator, inner growth, developer, anti-imperialist agent, lively unbiased, defender of the religion, bastion of the revolution, liberator, regional protector, isolate, regional chief, bridge, protectee and different.

[3] This shouldn’t be confused with intra-role battle, which is outlined by Brummer and Thies in the identical article as ‘incompatible expectations held both by the actor or others relating to a single position.

[4] Kilusang Pagbabago refers back to the multi-party umbrella coalition headed by PDP-Leban and shaped by supporters of Duterte and the 17th Congress of the Philippines.                                                                               

[5] The DND is represented by Protection Secretary Delfin N. Lorenzana. There has additionally been 4 totally different Overseas Secretary appointments since Duterte’s inauguration: Perfecto Yasay Jr. as an advert interim, Undersecretary Enrique Manalo as performing secretary, Alan Peter Cayetano and incumbent Teodoro Locsin Jr.


Written at: The London College of Economics and Political Science
Written for: Dr. Luca Tardelli and Dr. Jurgen Haacke
Date Written: Might 2020

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